Singularity Sunrise

Watson Wins

Artificial intelligence may be a fact of life for modern consumers, operating behind the scenes in a myriad of ways, but the public awareness of it is rather minimal. Predictive algorithms, after all, rarely make the headlines. That all changed this week as IBM entered a new question-answering machine called Watson as a contestant on the Jeopardy game show. As the LA Times reports:

The machine has won. Watson defeated the two biggest "Jeopardy" winners of all time: Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter. The IBM computer finished the final round of competition on Wednesday night with $77,147 in winnings over Jennings' $24,000 and Rutter's $21,600. Jennings holds the record for number of consecutive Jeopardy matches won, with 74. Rutter has won more money than anyone else on Jeopardy. The two men competed against each other in a 2005 tournament that resulted in a Rutter victory. Since Watson won, IBM is awarded $1 million -- all of it going to charities World Vision (an anti-poverty group) and World Community Grid (which builds computer grids to address social issues such as water shortages). Jennings, who won a $300,000 prize for second place, and Rutter, who was awarded $200,000, will each donate half their winnings to charities of their choosing. The three-episode showdown, which began Monday, was filled with minutes of featurettes in which IBM engineers spoke about how they built Watson and how its question-answering technology could be tailored to its enterprise clients such as hospitals, transportation departments, help desks and law firms. Academics have applauded IBM as having created a potentially breakthrough system to analyze unstructured data. And some readers, who left their comments on previous Technology Blog posts this week, complained about the three-day run, calling it essentially an infomercial for IBM.

No word yet on which "enterprise clients" will next make use of Watson, but there's no doubt that variations or descendants of Watson will soon find a place in business, academia and military circles:

Photo Credit: The Los Angeles Times

Looking Ahead at Consumer Technology

Here is an interesting report from the mainstream news media speculating about a future transformed by ubiquitous computing:

We'll also have access to more data about the world around us, dwarfing the real-time stock quotes, government statistics, scientific databases and other information stores available today. In the next decade as conjured by Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey, all that information will be available instantaneously, anywhere. He imagines spotting an acquaintance at a conference and having at his fingertips links to the person's most recent research, plus a reminder of her husband's name. Software will remember everything McQuivey buys, reads online and watches on TV. A "smart filter" will use his past choices to suggest the next book or show, or even what he should eat for dinner. It's a more powerful version of the way Amazon.com and Netflix make book or movie recommendations.

I particularly like how the reporter charts a path from where we were in technology (using familiar and fondly remembered products), to where we are now and to where we are likely to be in the future. Her comment that the iPhone will likely be obsolete in ten years was exciting (or chilling, depending on your perspective). My only criticism would be that she fails to anticipate artificial intelligence contributing to the power of ubiquitous computing, although one could argue that some of the applications she envisions would most likely have some kind of AI component. In all, it was an imaginative and informed look at a future in which we become more dependent on computers even as their physical footprint continues to shrink.

Quantum Computing Advances

If you have a quantum computer, is it on even when it's off? Ok, just having some fun, here's the news (BBC News - Major leap for faster computers):

Edinburgh and Manchester University researchers have created a molecular device which could act as a building block for super-fast computers. They have created components that could be used to develop quantum computers, which can make intricate calculations faster than conventional machines. The academics used molecular scale technology instead of silicon chips. They achieved the breakthrough by combining tiny magnets with molecular machines that can shuttle between two locations without the use of external force.

PS. The answer is: Yes and No at the same time.

Petaflop Barrier Falls

 A major new advance in supercomputing is reported in this Wired News report:

A new crop of supercomputers is breaking down the petaflop speed barrier, pushing high-performance computing into a new realm that could change science more profoundly than at any time since Galileo, leading researchers say. [...] Scientists will be able to run new and vastly more accurate models of complex phenomena: Climate models will have dramatically higher resolution and accuracy, new materials for efficient energy transmission will be developed and simulations of scramjet engines will reach a new level of complexity.

Climate change gets top billing here, but I bet these new supercomputers will also lead to advances in neuroscience as well as artificial intelligence.

Machine, Heal Thyself

According to this report in Science Daily:

Researchers at the University of the West of England (UWE) are to carry out ground breaking research with collaborators from the University of York into creating electronic systems that can diagnose and heal their own faults in ways similar to the human immune system [...] Drawing on inspiration from nature, the researchers at York and Bristol will look for ways to create electronic systems based on a structure of ‘cells’ which have the ability to work together to defend system integrity, diagnose faults, and heal themselves.

So it's entirely possible that the machines of the future will be able to recognize when they are damaged and being to heal themselves without the intervention or maintenance of their human handlers.

The Future of Computers

BBC News has a really well done feature on Future directions in computing which highlights advances in quantum computers, optical computers, chemical computers, DNA computers and even plastic computers.

The Petabyte Age

Wired News ponders what the Petabyte Age will mean for us (The Petabyte Age: Because More Isn't Just More — More Is Different):

Sensors everywhere. Infinite storage. Clouds of processors. Our ability to capture, warehouse, and understand massive amounts of data is changing science, medicine, business, and technology. As our collection of facts and figures grows, so will the opportunity to find answers to fundamental questions. Because in the era of big data, more isn't just more. More is different.

Except for that silliness about the end of the scientific method, I found the issue to be well done and very thought provoking. Get ready for some really accelerated change!

Petaflop Barrier Broken

A very important milestone in the development of computers is being reported today: the petaflop barrier has been conquered by a Los Alamos National Laboratory and IBM supercomputer (AP - Scientists develop fastest computer):

Scientists unveiled the world's fastest supercomputer on Monday, a $100 million machine that for the first time has performed 1,000 trillion calculations per second in a sustained exercise. [...] The computer, named Roadrunner, is twice as fast as IBM's Blue Gene system at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which itself is three times faster than any of the world's other supercomputers, according to IBM.

Defining Cyberspace

The Pentagon has redefined cyberspace to better fit the military missions of the 21st Century (Danger Room - 26 Years After Gibson, Pentagon Defines 'Cyberspace'):

"More than two decades after novelist William Gibson coined the term cyberspace as a 'consensual hallucination' of data... the Pentagon has come up with its own definition," Inside Defense reports.  "A May 12 'for official use only' memo signed by Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon England... offers a 28-word meaning for the term." It is decidedly "less poetic" than Gibson's.  It is different from previous military definitions.  And it doesn't exactly square with how the Air Force's new "Cyberspace Command" sees this emerging battlefield.

Cyberspace, England writes, is “a global domain within the information environment consisting of the interdependent network of information technology infrastructures, including the Internet, telecommunications networks, computer systems, and embedded processors and controllers.”

Well, there you go, cyberspace is the global network of interconnected hardware and software which the modern military stands ready to defend and/or attack. What have they omitted from their definition? The wetware - the human mind.

Nanoionic Flash Memory

A new kind of flash memory could revolutionize data storage and bring us into the age of ubiquitous computing (Phoenix Business Journal - Nanotechnology could offer jolt to memory chips):

Michael Kozicki wants to make sure people can have all of their information at their fingertips any time, anywhere. The technology he is working on may do just that, allowing users to carry a terabyte of data in the palm of their hand. That's 1,000 gigabytes, four to eight times the capacity of a common personal computer hard drive.

[...]

His device is called programmable metallization cell memory, or PMC. Like flash memory, it is nonvolatile, which means it can hold data even when it is not hooked up to a power source. Where PMC differs from flash memory is its structure. Kozicki's memory cell is based on nanoionics, a science that allows ion bridges to be formed in the memory cells that hold the data. Because the memory is working on a scale of nanometers, which are the equivalent of one-billionth of a meter, the chip can hold significantly more information than flash drives, he said. "We could easily see a terabyte or more in the future," he said.